I. The Context – A “10-Year Election”:The Party that wins a majority gets to draw legislative districts that will last 10 years.Current makeup of General Assembly –– Senate: 30 D, 20 R; House 68 D, 52 R
Leads to attitude of not taking up controversial issues and “Don’t make mistakes that may cost ‘our’ party a majority in 2010”
Already Gone or Not Running for Re-Election |
Senate |
House |
8 Dem.
|
2 Repub.
|
9 Dem.
|
8 Repub.
(Allred) Ingle
Blackwood
Grady
Gulley
C. Justus
Neumann (running for Sen.)
|
II. It’s a Short Session:May 12 to July/August
Can only consider:Issues Related to Budget
Recommendations from Study Commissions
Bills That Have Passed One Chamber
Primary: May 4th Watch for any message from voters: Is it anti-all incumbents or anti-Democrat
Poll: 48% say “They are all corrupt”
General Election: Nov. 2nd
A. Budget Issues: Another revenue shortfall: $1.6 bil. estimates Budget and Tax Center vs. Speaker
Hackney says shortfall is $700 mil. now
Not likely to raise taxes in election year
Governor’s budget cuts most agencies 5-7%; education is cut 4%; cuts about 600 jobs
1. Medicaid: Already $250 mil. short, likely to be $500 mil. short by 6/30
Already have implemented preferred drug list, cut personal care services programs, and
cut provider rates
Federal extra Medicaid money (FMAP) ends 12/31, halfway through state fiscal year
(7/1-6/30)
Governor’s proposed cuts ($60 mil.): cut dental care for adult Medicaid patients, cut
in-home health care for adults; save $36 mil. by attacking Medicaid fraud
On the table: will possibly reduce optional services
Will do whatever is necessary to get federal waivers; just got waiver for mental health
services statewide
2. Recommendations from Gov.’s BRAC (Budget Reform and Accountability Comn.)
New computer software to find Medicaid fraud
Consolidate state’s IT operations
Privatize custodial services in prisons
3. Changes in formula for distributing road money: urban areas will win in 2010 or 2011
4. No pay raises for teachers, state employees.
5. UNC counter proposal on 5.2% tuition increase and 51% of proceeds for financial aid vs.
legislature’s tuition increase where all proceeds go into General Fund
B. Recommendations from Study Commissions
1. Alcoholic Beverage Control – privatize all (potentially increases revenue without increasing taxes,
an attractive option this year) vs. leave as is vs. reduce # of local boards and allow some private
retail outlets to sell
2. Whether to lift ban on hardened structures at beach like seawalls, jetties, and terminal groins
3. Student financial aid – require all community colleges to offer federal loans in exchange
for budget flexibility for colleges
change in Board for State Education Assistance Authority
consolidate financial aid programs that are designed to address work force
shortages of teachers, nurses, etc.
4. Mental health oversight:The components of the state’s new strategy:
CABHAS (Critical Access Behavioral Health Agencies) for local services
Peer Support Specialists
Buy bed space in local hospitals for patients in crisis
Mental Health is heavily affected by Medicaid budget since Medicaid is largest source of funds
5. Increase compulsory school attendance age from 16 to 17 to 18
6. Merger of Smart Start and More at 4
7. Domestic Violence – include sexual violence in purview of commission
limit liability of D.V. shelters
8. Reworking of Lee Tax Credits for Businesses
9. Aging
10. NC’s energy future
11. Water allocation
Note:There’ll be less study time available than usual after the session because of hot Nov. election
C. Bills That Have Already Passed One Chamber (House or Senate) in 2009 and Thus Are Alive in 2010
1. Campaign finance law changes (S 716-Clodfelter)
2. More disclosure for gubernatorial appointees (H 944 – Glazier)
3. Close executive branch revolving door (H 1136 – Ross & Stam)
4. Pay To Play Regulation: Prohibit vendors who win state contracts from making large campaign
donations (H 961 – Glazier)
5. Homeowner/homebuyer protection act (S 1015 – Stein)
6. Delineate river basins (S 833 – Clodfelter)
7. Prohibit cell phones in prison (H 8 – Pierce, Hall)
8. Reorganize schools with high dropout rates (H 1176 – Coates, Crawford, Steen, Langdon)
9. Adopt NC Hot Sauce Day (H 683 – Crawford)
D. Governor’s Initiatives – see also Budget Issues section and BRAC proposals above
1. Jobs, jobs, jobs measures in a state with 11% unemployment
2. Ethics reform
3. Small business initiatives:
(a) $15 million for tax rebate to small businesses that hire workers who have been unemployed for 60+
days;
(b) $250 tax credit for small businesses that provide health insurance to employees
4. More probation reform
5. Promote government transparency: $ to State Ethics Commission and to State Board of Elections and to expand archive of state employees’ email.
6. 6 local roundtables on issues affecting the aging in April-June and Governor’s Executive Order #54
E. Other Possibilities
1. No death penalty for those with severe mental illness; House will move first on this
2. Water policy legislation from environmental groups
F. Run-On Bills (Legislation to win points with parts of electorate but unlikely to pass)
1. Overturn Board of Community Colleges’ decision to allow immigrants to pay out-of-state tuition
and go to college
2. Tax cuts
G. Seep-Down Effect from Major Federal Legislation
1. Health care reform – expands Medicaid
2. Student loans – cuts out banks’ roles in loans and affects N.C. State Education Assistance Authority
3. Federal matching percentage (FMAP) of Medicaid program dollars reverts from temporary 24% to 35% on 12/31/10
4. Race to the Top in education: State’s proposal is due 6/1 in 2nd effort to get one-time federal money for education. Gov. may agree to:
*tie teacher evaluation to student performance on test scores
*raise cap on # of charter schools from 100 (To get maximum number of points (40) on charter
schools section, 10% of a state’s schools must be charter schools; N.C.s # of charter schools(100)
currently is 4% of state’s 2,500 schools.)
H. Doubtful
1. Climate change bills
2. Tax reform: Speaker says not in 2010 and Governor seems uninterested
Not likely until: a candidate for Gov. runs on tax reform as part of his/her platform and wins
a blue ribbon study commission recommends a package
the state needs revenue really badly (to address say a 20% budget deficit) or the
legislative sponsors promise that a tax reform bill would be revenue-neutral
